The most-traded SHFE tin contract opened slightly higher in the night session and maintained a high-level consolidation, while the spot market remained sluggish. [SMM Tin Morning Update]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on November 25, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) opened slightly higher in the night session and maintained a high-level consolidation, closing at 293,680 yuan/mt, up 0.07% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) US Fed—① Waller: Concerns about the labour market, advocates for an interest rate cut in December. ② Market views suggest the Fed should wait for the non-farm payrolls release and postpone the December meeting. ③ Daly: Supports a December interest rate cut, citing fragility in the labour market. (2) According to The Wall Street Journal, Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed and a 2027 FOMC voting member, expressed support for an interest rate cut next month, as she believes the risk of a sudden deterioration in the job market is greater and harder to control than a sudden surge in inflation. In an interview on Monday, she said, "In the labour market, I am not confident we can stay ahead. The labour market is now fragile enough that the risk is of a nonlinear change." In contrast, she noted the risk of an inflation outbreak is lower, as cost increases driven by tariffs have been much milder than expected earlier this year. Daly's views are noteworthy; although she has no vote on monetary policy this year, she rarely publicly disagrees with Fed Chairman Powell. At the December 9–10 meeting, Daly may play a key role in resolving internal disagreements within the rate-setting committee on whether to cut rates or pause hikes. (3) According to foreign media, Alphabet (GOOG.O), Google's parent company, is in talks with Meta (META.O) and other firms to open access to its self-developed Tensor AI chips, further expanding competition with Nvidia (NVDA.O). Following the news, Google and its AI chip partner Broadcom rose in after-hours trading, while Nvidia and AMD shares fell. Google traditionally deploys its self-developed TPUs only in its own data centers and leases computing power to customers. However, US tech media The Information reported on Monday evening local time that Google now plans to directly sell TPU chips to customers for deployment in their own data centers. Meta is considering purchasing Google TPU chips worth billions of US dollars for its data centers starting in 2027, while also planning to lease TPU computing power from Google Cloud as early as 2026. Currently, Meta's AI operations rely mainly on Nvidia GPUs. For Google and Broadcom, which co-designed the Tensor chip, this represents a potentially huge emerging market. It may also create significant competitive pressure on Nvidia and AMD, potentially impacting their sales and pricing power.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply in major production areas like Yunnan is tightening, and most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Orders have decreased significantly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream purchasing remained cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although the increase in AI computing power and the growth in PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in consumption from traditional sectors.

Spot market: Overall trading in the spot market was sluggish, as high prices continued to dampen downstream purchase willingness. End-user enterprises maintained only essential stockpiling, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market.

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